The Best of Marriage: Arguments for an amendment

Marriage and the Constitution

10 years ago, many conservative scholars would have laughed and mocked the notion of a Constitutional amendment. What changed? Below are some of the arguments for and against such an amendment.

> Argument against amendment: "The constitution says nothing about marriage"
"True, but judges have and are. Today, the constitution says a lot about Marriage..." because judges are reading that into her. [source]

> Argument against amendment: "Marriage is a question the Constitution wisely leaves to the people to decide in their respective states."
Judges have taken that power away. The legislature has no power as demonstrated in MA.

> Argument against amendment: "The last thing America needs is more powerful federal courts."
This is precisely the point. Judges are now more powerful. Balance needs to be restored. see here

> Question: "What is the public role of marriage?"

The debate over whether homosexual couples should be allowed to legally "marry" is not about rights, equality, or discrimination, despite the often heated rhetoric to that effect. Still less is it about the allocation of an entitlement package of legal rights and financial benefits. Instead, this is a question of definition--how do we define the social institution we call marriage? To answer that we must ask, What is the public purpose of marriage?

Please note that I said the public purpose of marriage. The private purposes for which people enter into marriage may be as diverse as the people themselves. Homosexual activists sometimes argue that they want to marry for the same reasons heterosexuals do--out of a desire for love and companionship.

But I ask you--are interpersonal love and companionship really the business of government? Would we even tolerate the government issuing licenses and regulating entry and exit into relationships whose only or even principal purpose is emotional attachment? I submit to you that the answer is no. [source]

> Question: "What about the elderly and procreation, isn't this an argument for gay marriage?"
"However, to exclude non-reproducing heterosexual couples from marriage would require an invasion of privacy or the drawing of arbitrary and inexact lines. Instead, we simply define the structure of marriage as being open to the entire class of couples that are even theoretically capable of natural reproduction--namely, opposite-sex ones--and we exclude an entire class of couples that are intrinsically infertile--namely, same-sex ones." [source, see above]

> Precedent: Voting

I know you will say to this that some homosexuals do reproduce (with help, of course), and some homosexual couples do raise children. But let me suggest, as an analogy, another area in which the law places limits on the exercise of a fundamental right--voting. We have a minimum voting age because we presume that adults are wiser and better informed that children. The mere fact that some adults are actually foolish and ill-informed, while some children may be wiser and better informed, does not make the existence of a minimum voting age arbitrary or discriminatory. Distinguishing between opposite-sex couples and same-sex couples with regard to marriage on the basis of general differences is equally logical.

In fact, I would suggest that the argument in favor of same-sex marriage can only be logically sustained if one argues that there is no difference between men and women--that is, if one argues not merely that men and women are equal in value and dignity, a proposition I'm sure we all agree with, but that males are females are identical, and thus can serve as entirely interchangeable parts in the structure of marriage. This contention is biologically absurd, and "same-sex marriage" is thus an oxymoron. [same as as above]

> Argument for amendment: slippery slope

The Missouri man [who wanted to marry his horse] and homosexual "marriage" proponents categorically reject the definition of marriage as the union of a man and a woman. Instead, the sole criterion for marriage becomes the presence of "love" and "mutual commitment." But once marriage is no longer confined to a man and a woman, it is impossible to exclude virtually any relationship between two or more partners of either sex--even non-human "partners."

> Argument against amendment: Civil rights for homosexuals

However, no citizen has the unrestricted right to marry whoever they want. A parent cannot marry their child (even if he or she is of age), two or more spouses, or the husband or wife of another person. Such restrictions are based upon the accumulated wisdom not only of Western civilization but also of societies and cultures around the world for millennia.

Neither can gay activists appeal to a "natural rights" argument: i.e., no reasonable person would deny homosexuals and lesbians their self-evident right to marry. Harry Jaffa cogently replies that such arguments actually argue against homosexual marriage: "Nature and reason tell us that a Negro is a human being, and is not to be treated like a horse or an ox or a dog, just as they tell us that a Jew is a human being, and is not to be treated as a plague-bearing bacillus. But with the very same voice, nature and reason tell us that a man is not a woman, and that sexual friendship is properly between members of opposite-sexes, not the same sex." source

Here are a few other points that favor an amendment:

1. A Constitutional amendment will restore the crucial understanding that American government operates under a written Constitution.

2. A constitutional amendment will restore the proper balance of power between the judiciary and the representative branches of government.

The Marriage Amendment is the Only Way By Senator Orrin G. Hatch

Why We Need a Marriage Amendment
Robert P. George, David L. Tubbs

Gay Marriage vs. American Marriage

see also here

Next Article: Exception Handling

You’ve no doubt encountered the ominous (some would say omnipresent) 404 “page cannot be found” error while surfing the Internet. Most people blame this type of anomalous event (some would say ubiquitous annoyance) on user error or incompetent webmasters.

In truth, the 404 error is a way to handle exceptions. Every web server has a default message that it will display if the user requests a page that doesn’t exist. This is how websites “fail gracefully.” Application programmers, mechanical engineers, and even chemical weapons experts know how to handle exceptions, and fail, gracefully. Not so for left leaning policy advocates.

Progressive politicians demand that exceptions be handled as the key driver for all policies. A liberal cannot accept “failure,” graceful or otherwise. In their minds, there can be no exceptions. In their minds exceptions not only dictate the breadth and scope of policies but signify the success of those policies. Whether expanding abortion rights or promoting OSHA standards, no sparrow falls that the left will not defend through political means.

Take automobile safety standards. As one advocate recently put it: “One death is one too many deaths.” Thus, auto standards can never be too stringent. In fact, we might as well do away with the combustion engine, right Al? Are coconut tree standards up to par? Are 28 deaths per year by coconuts dropping too many? Should we drive at 5 miles per hour? Can their really be no deaths with automobiles?

Thus liberals can feel good about themselves and place the exception (in this case automobile deaths) as the basis for more policies. They place themselves in the role of God, but with a twist. “He knows the sparrow’s fall” The progressive advocate adds “and He catches him mid flight to avert his death.”

Abortion is another touchpoint of liberal exception handling. Why do liberals so fervently oppose banning partial birth abortions?. Because they can devise an exception that demands inclusion. Thus, they can spout a “what if” story for every needy minority. “What if a girl is raped and hides the pregnancy until the last trimester?” “What if the mother’s life is in serious jeopardy?” Of course, the former is a horrific event that we have to deal with, the later is very rare. But does that really dictate that warrant the killing of a nearly fully formed child? Radio talk show host Glenn Beck would to attest otherwise.

With liberals the life of a coach roach is more important that the lives of 4 people.

What about the salmon fish vs. firefighters?

How about arsenic in the water?

What about people who don’t pay taxes getting tax breaks?

What about legal rights demanding marriage for a minority of people?

In each of these cases, policies were devised to drive protections for exceptions rather than policies that handle exceptions.

For one, you can’t anticipate every exception (527s for example).

For another, humans fail. It’s a fundamental misunderstanding of human nature.

Frequently, policies are prompted by exceptions.

They assume that all exceptions have a root cause and that all anomalies can be fixed.

It’s this same assumption that bans god from Thanksgiving.

The Washington...

Jim Robbins is right.

The Washington Nationals is very boring. My top pick was the Cicadas: which indicates how annoying DC is going to be for baseball fans and how often they will win anything (once every 17 years).

Touchpoint Political Litmus Test

I love litmus tests. There should be more of them. Of course, I think there should be more racial profiling (which is in itself a political litmus test). A good test I've always dealt out is the Rosenbergs. If someone says they are innocent its a good bet they are from the kooky left wing of the Democratic party or worse, the Communist party. (Actually, I'd prefer that they came from the Communist party so I can retain what little respect I have left for Democrats).

Another great litmus test surfaced over the weekend. By now you've heard how Bush personally intervened to keep his Secret Service bodyguard with him after the agent was blocked from following the President by Chilean security guards.

The short of it is this: if you like Bush you saw a defiant, in control man, looking after his friends and unafraid to get in the mix of things.

If you hate Bush you saw a smirk and grand-standing. Perhaps you thought him a bit chicken for demading his body guard stay with him.
Some folks like on PowerLine believe that this was an assassination attempt. This may be true.

But the general political lense that one supports is immediately obvious.

The Washington Times has the headline: "In role reversal, president rescues Secret Service agent":

The president's lead agent approached the line of men as quickly as it closed and demanded to be allowed through. Within a few seconds, the confrontation began to escalate with voices being raised and shoving in all directions.

"You're not stopping me! You're not stopping me!" yelled the agent, as captured by several television cameras. "I'm with the president."

During the fracas, another Secret Service agent was roughly pulled from the tumult and pushed against a concrete wall by Chilean security. A few seconds later, after posing for yet more pictures about 15 feet inside the doorway, Mr. Bush and the rest of the party turned to enter the dining room. But the president quickly turned his head to the growing din just outside.

Mr. Bush calmly turned right as the other three continued on and inserted himself into the fight. The president reached over two rows of Chilean security guards, grabbed his lead agent by the shoulder of his suit jacket and began to pull.
A few Chilean guards turned their heads and noticed that the arm draped over their shoulders was that of the president, and the line softened. Mr. Bush pulled his agent through, who was heard to say, "Get your hands off me" as he passed roughly through the doorway.

Mr. Bush then adjusted his shirt cuff and said something to the first dignitary he passed as a grin crossed his face.

The post has quite a different take. Their headline: "Spats Over Security Roil Summit in Chile":

U.S. officials said Chilean police had been chafing for a week about a demand by Secret Service agents that they control the president's space, even when he was on sovereign turf. Now, it was payback time.

In the fracas that ensued, amid a flurry of half nelsons, one Secret Service agent wound up jammed against a wall. "You're not stopping me! You're not stopping me! I'm with the president!" an unidentified agent can be heard yelling on videotape of the mayhem.

It took Bush several minutes to realize what was happening. The president and the first lady walked on through the door onto a big red carpet, looking relaxed. They greeted Lagos and his wife, Luisa Duran. "You want us to pose here?" Bush asked Lagos with a grin, and they turned to face a wall of flashes.

Then Bush either realized he was missing something, or he heard the commotion. The president, who is rarely alone, even in his own house, turned and walked back to the front door unaccompanied, facing the backs of a sea of dark suits. Bush, with his right hand, reached over the suits and pointed insistently at Trotta. At first the officials, with their backs to him and their heads in the rumble, did not realize it was the president intervening. Bush then braced himself against someone and lunged to retrieve the agent, who was still arguing with the Chileans. The shocked Chilean officials then released Trotta.

Trotta walked in behind Bush, who looked enormously pleased with himself. He was wearing the expression that some critics call a smirk, and his eyebrows shot up as if to wink at bystanders.

Bush adjusted his right cufflink and muttered something to Lagos, took the first lady's arm and headed into the dinner of grilled fish.

Of course, I wouldn't expect less from the Washington Post. I particularly like their insertion of "smirk" in the piece.

Either, way this is another in a long list of litmus tests that will instantly show your true colors. Another one of my favorites: Dan Rather and memogate: were the memos fakes but accurate? You make the call.

I'm sorry you're sorry. No really.

The first image in the Sorry Everybody gallery just about sets the correct tone for the majority of posts. To be more specific: notice the awkward choice of font for such a raucus motif. Notice also the confusion of the face (is this really the same person giving the quote?) The sexual reference, the stereotype college democrat, and the drinking are all too common themese througout the entire site.

Just so you don't think I spent all day on the site, I wrote a script that allowed me to browse through the images 1000 at a time. It was still tedious work even then and only after a day or two of recovery can I now post the best of:



For some reason a good percentage of the photographers like to post scrawlings on their oddly malnurished bodies. None was so quite so graphic as this guys's post.



Yes, that appears to be blood. Just so you know I'm not exaggerating about the frequency of this odd theme see here and here and here. Other examples are too explicit to demonstrate.

Of course, another common thread througout the gallery is the strange faces and odd hair. My mother wanted to name me Grimlocke believe it or not.

click here

Sing along with me here: "There she is, Miss Zombie America..." ?

click here

Here's another for good measure:

click here

Of course, its not just Americans apologizing, it's also foreigners forgiving us. Here's a charming fellow. I've got a hat just like this:

click here

I'm really not sure what those are. No doubt something to do with the Northern Lights... or some Islamic rite I'm not aware of.

click here

More to come!

The Virgin Mary, Jonah Goldberg, and a Grilled Cheese Sandwich

OK. So this lady makes this grilled cheese sandwich in 1994 and presto, the Virgin Mary appears on it! Now she's selling it on Ebay The price is up to $14,000. I'm speechless.

But, did you know that if you turn the sandwich upside down, you see the visage of Jonah Goldberg:



UPDATE: I'm told the auction is into the millions now! Astounding. Amazing what kind of value Jonah's face can bring! As one blogger put it: "Behold the power of cheese!"

UPDATE: It's back down to $18,000. Perhaps we should see if Ann Coulter's face is on there too?

National Day of the WHAT?!

I love horses, but...

Just got this from a source on the Hill:

Moments ago, I received official word from the Senate cloakroom (see e-mail below), that the Senate Majority Leader is seeking unanimous consent to call up and pass S. Res. 452, “designating December 13, 2004, as ‘National Day of the Horse,’ and encouraging the people of the United States to be mindful of the contribution of horses to the economy, history, and character of the United States..

In the event any of you are inclined to accuse those of us here at the United States Senate of being afraid to tackle head-on the pressing, weighty issues of our day, bite your tongue.

Here's the designation (your tax dollar at work)

A resolution designating December 13, 2004, as "National Day of the Horse" and encouraging the people of the United States to be mindful of the contribution of horses to the economy, history, and character of the United States.

Bill Number: S Res 452

What to make of the CIA

Ever since Bob Novak's breaking column on the tensions between the Bush administration and the CIA, I've been taken back by the implications of a left-leaning intelligence force.

For years now, I've known how decidedly left the State Department leans. But the entrenched mentality of the CIA is a touchy point for me to swallow. After all, the State Department is an edifice of diplomacy that will easily hold lock step with the socialists in Europe, mostly because most of its employment force wets their feet on European soil before heading back stateside for management positions. But the CIA!? What reason have they to lean left...

Perhaps the reason is all too obvious: academia. The pure scope of failure of the pre-9/11 intelligence community runs parallel to the huge influx of deskjob analysts rather than serious ground intelligence. We learn from Woodward and others that the CIA had no operatives in Iraq after a post-9/11 assessment. We'll lay the blame somewhere and sometime (at least Tenent is gone).

I've spoken before how shocked I was to speak to a good friend of mine who is an analyst for the CIA. His inclinations were also leaning left. He is decidedly worried who will take over the defense department and other agencies. His main complaint: The US is deceived if it thinks that it can implement a democracy in the middle east.

Of late, I've been reading Lee Harris's excellent article in Policy Review 2 years ago My friend referred me to another article in the Atlantic monthly (which I have yet to find?). I think the tension between these two articles goes like this:

> Al Quaeda is delusional and requires an equally delusional response.

Harris would see this quote as supporting Bush, the Atlantic monthly sees it directly affecting Bush. I need to do some more research on this. More to follow.

Confusing Personality for Leadership

All this glorified coverage about Yasser is making me sick. So I took a few Pepcids and sat down to think about it. Why does the left glorify this murderer. There are several reasons, but one that hadn't occurred to me can be summed up in a nice little parallel phrase:

They confuse personality for leadership and leadership for personality.

Think Clinton and Reagan. Think Yasser and anyone else.

Letter From Elizabeth Edwards

Well, at least the Kerry campaign is putting their email list to good use.

I received this email today on the Kerry Edwards stationary, best of luck to Ms. Edwards:

Dear Justin,

First, I want to thank each of you for the support you have given to John Kerry and John Edwards. You gave it in a thousand ways: coming to our events, volunteering to set up and clean up, working the phone banks, knocking on doors, contributing, blogging, standing on corners with signs, whatever it took. Your strength carried us through.

You may have heard that I have been diagnosed with breast cancer. Your strength is carrying my family through too in this latest struggle, and this is a fight we will win. We have (and I say we because John has been with me every minute) started chemotherapy with tremendous confidence, confidence in our doctors, in our ability to face obstacles, and in our friends far and near who we know give us their thoughts and prayers and support today and will continue to do so in the months ahead.

So many of you have tried to reach me recently with your support, and I know that the Senate office and the Wade Edwards Learning Lab have been flooded with calls and e-mails. No complaints there, but in order to take a little pressure off of them, I have resurrected my old e-mail address at elizabeth@oneamericacommittee.com, where you can reach me. I will e-mail periodic updates to you about my progress from there, if you would be interested in getting those. Treatment should last until about next June with follow-ups every three months or so.

I hope you understand how much your support has meant to us. This thank you is to our new and expanded family.

Elizabeth Edwards

NPR : U.S. Find Sarin?

NPR : U.S. Forces Move Through Fallujah: "And this evening one Marine unit believes it may have found a store of sarin nerve gas, though explosives experts, I have to say, have yet to arrive to inspect.

My 2 cents about Specter

Here is a letter which I sent to over 4000 LDS volunteers about the Arlen Specter situation.

A call to action from the Family News Network You did it! But it's not over yet! Dear Meridian reader, “I urge you with all the capacity that I have to reach out in a duty that stands beyond the requirements of our everyday lives, that is, to stand strong, even to become a leader in speaking up in behalf of those causes which make our civilization shine and which give comfort and peace to our lives. You can be a leader. You must be a leader...” - President Gordon B. Hinckley Take action now: Read about the Senate Leadership crisis below We want to thank you for the incredible efforts that you put forth as “anxiously engaged” Latter-day Saints over the past few weeks leading up to last Tuesday’s tremendous victory. The service that you rendered did not go unnoticed. More importantly, the service you rendered may have changed the election! Hundreds of you responded to our call for volunteers across the country to help re-elect President Bush and increase conservative majorities in both houses of Congress. Whether you made a dozen phone calls from home or walked a dozen miles from home to home, your energetic response put us over the top. We thank you! However, like all great efforts, the work goes on. No sooner has the election been decided than the first challenges have arisen. We ask for your help again to keep the momentum of this movement alive by responding to an urgent crisis in leadership of the Senate. Take action now: Read about the Senate Leadership crisis below Background Many of you are aware that Senator Hatch is leaving his position as Chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee because of recently enacted term limit rules. Senate practice has traditionally given the chairmanship to the ranking member with longest tenure on the committee. Pennsylvania Senator Arlen Specter is the unofficial chair designate for the next congress. Senator Specter has consistently been at odds with the Bush Administration on a number of issues. As National Review columnist Stephen Moore noted earlier this year, Specter is a RINO (Republican in Name Only). Moore continues: “Specter has about the lowest American Conservative Union rating of any other senator who bothers calling himself a Republican and close to the worst National Taxpayers Union. The American Civil Liberties Union gives him two enthusiastic thumbs up.” On Wednesday, not even 24 hours after President Bush’s acceptance speech, Senator Specter indicated that he may block any judicial nominee that he deemed too conservative. Essentially, Senator Specter’s comments implied that he would employ a litmus test in his assessments as Chairman of the Judiciary Committee. Such an effort would seriously undermine the sacrifice that thousands of conservatives made to elect a majority and preserve the values we hold dear. Take action now: Read about the Senate Leadership crisis below Senator Specter’s remarks are a slap in the face to the Bush administration, which supported the Senator’s re-election campaign this year against Republican challenger Congressman Pat Toomey during the primaries. Toomey, a true conservative, would have easily won the Republican nomination were it not for a last-minute endorsement by President Bush on behalf of Senator Spencer. Many conservatives were disappointed by the President’s decision to support Specter, but were willing to look the other way in exchange for a larger majority in the Senate. While Specter was a shoe-in to win the general election, Toomey was not. As one Republican Senate insider told us last week: “We would have gladly settled for a 53-seat majority in exchange for losing Specter.” Of course, hindsight is 20-20. In short, we need your help to ensure that Arlen Specter is not installed as Chairman of the Senate Judiciary. Here’s what you can do: Act Now! Write or email your Senator (click here to find your Senator) Call your Republican Senator Call the Republican members of the Senate Judiciary: Senator Hatch (202) 224-5251 Senator Grassley (202)224.3744 Senator Kyl (202) 224-4521 Senator DeWine (202) 224-2315 Senator Sessions (202) 224-4124 Senator Graham (202) 224-5972 Senator Craig 202/224-2752 Senator Chambliss (202) 224-3521 Senator Cornyn 202-224-2934 In your emails, letters and phone calls, please indicate your opposition to Senator Specter being voted in as Chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee. We ask that you be brief and to the point when you contact these offices. Also, we ask that you be polite in your language and approach. Here’s a sample script of what you might say or write: “Hello. My name is ________. I would to voice my opposition to Senator Specter being voted in as Chairman of the Senate Judiciary. I believe that his recent comments indicate that he would seriously undermine the judicial nominations that President Bush might make to the committee and hamper efforts to sustain the values that I uphold. I ask Senator _____ to vote against Senator Specter’s bid to become Chairman. Thank you.” As noted in this morning's Washington Post, the Senate has been flooded with calls insisting that Specter NOT be given this very powerful Chairmanship. Your call will be part of a force of THOUSANDS who are already taking action built on the momentum of last week’s incredible election. Specter’s arrogance concerning judges that President Bush should and should not appoint is feckless liberalism at its worst. The assumptive powers he pretends to own are not his yet and should not be his. Many of you worked countless hours to re-elect President Bush and other conservatives for very specific reasons. The obligation of the ruling majority is to listen to the constituents who put them there. The post-election enthusiasm we share from the Republican victory is not license to ignore our base values. Your call could make the difference, AGAIN! Thank you, Editors of Family News Network Other ways to get involved: http://www.notspecter.com/ Fax the Senate

4 More Years - i'm lovin' it

My final tribute to this wonderful week!

© 2004 Justin Hart

Cracks me up! Is this terrorism or comical?

FOXNews.com - Politics - Students Won't Leave Until GOP Answers: "About 85 students remained holed up inside the library at Boulder High School (search) early Friday, saying they're concerned about the direction the country is headed and refusing to leave until they've met with leaders from the Republican Party. "

Everyone Needs to read this on the Kerry Spot Today

The Kerry Spot on National Review Online: "ASSESSING TUESDAY"

Classic Quotes from the Imploding Left

"Divisive Results"

Edwards had it right when he spoke of Two Americas.
Those Two Americas just threw up a big brick wall between them in the last 2 days.
I don't think any of us can knock it down. (source)

"Those Religion Wackos!"

The talk of values on tv and i heard it a lot on CBS because that was the network on which i watched most of the time last night. it's not values, it's a terrible form of Christianity, where you don't have a god to love but a devil to hate and sinners to punish. that is your hard-core bush-supporting evangelicals. (source)

Out-Jesused?!

Bush made a conscious decision not to be "out- Jesused." The only way to fight him was to show his supporters that their candidate had feet of clay, that he did not in fact live the life they thought he did. (source)

Facing Reality

There are more conservatives out there than liberals, and as I wrote at length here, they stand for things we are diametrically opposed to. We can't siphon the "racist" vote, or the "anti-gay" vote, or the "religious nutcase" vote. And the numbers are saying that those constituencies are very large, even if we liberals don't want to believe that. (source)

We need to SIMPLIFY our message, and as someone else said up-thread, celebrate REAL family values- health care for all, clean environment, respect for LIFE on our terms, etc.

For crying out loud, this is why we lost the election. Stop looking for conspiracy theories and start looking for answers. Kerry lost this election, as Gore did...now what are you going to do about it? You can scream fraud all you want, but it's not going to change anything. We (i.e. the democrats and their supporters) have to stop playing the blame game, and get their own house in order.

Solutions

Reframing the argument. In the coming era, Pro life could mean protecting people at all stages of life. e.g. Pregnant single women with low income and little access to affordable healthcare are more likely to have an abortion. If you want to stamp out abortion, you have to demonize all the root causes of abortion, not just sex and not the procedure itself. Improve access to education, expand section 8 housing, fight for a higher minimum wage, etc. By using the momentum of the theocrats against themselves we can bring mainstream-conservative Christians into our tent but it will take years (probably decades) to reframe the arguments sufficiently so that a 3 second sound bite with a few code words thrown in will move 50+ million voters.

I do think we have to understand that Rove has changed the make up electorate. We can't go buy official party registrations; Rove has increased the size of the reliable conservative electorate and put us at a greater starting point disadvantage. This has helped Republicans beat expectations in both 2002 and 2004. Traditionally Presidential parties take a beating in the sixth year of a two term president, but Clinton beat that rule in 1998, and I would ignore it in 2006- we are going to have to fight for every inch

Fraud alone is not why Kerry is behind in the popular vote by 3+ million.(Although if all the absentee and provisional ballots are counted, this number will decrease). And even if Kerry won Ohio, a 3 million vote deficit and a Rethug Congress would make Kerry's presidency impossible to govern. The likely outcome is that W runs again in 2008 and wins. (source)

Conspiracy

Mike Malloy covered this on his AirAmericaRadio show last night.
Four republican backed, religious fundamentalist christian inspired companies have cornered the touch screen voting machine market. They are:

ES & S, Diebold, Sequoia, SAIC

Our despair, on the other hand, is undiluted. American liberalism is going into a deep internal exile. This will be, at least with regard to our public institutions, Tom DeLay's America--craven toward the economically powerful and vicious toward the economically weak, contemptuous of open debate and thuggish toward an increasingly embittered world. It would be comforting to believe the pendulum will naturally swing back. But, as my colleague Jonathan Chait has argued, the Bush administration and its allies have gone to great lengths to insulate themselves from democratic pressure, to make decisions in secret, and thus to prevent public opinion from forcing their hand. Already, the president is claiming a mandate for partial Social Security privatization and regressive changes in the tax code-- even though he rarely campaigned on these issues and there is no evidence the American public voted for them. The pendulum will not inevitably swing back. It will have to be moved back by a political opposition that knows what it believes and knows how to fight for it.

McCain as VP and Secretary of Defense

NEWSWEEK ELECTION ISSUE: 'How He Did It': "'To show just how sincere he was, he
made an outlandish offer,' Newsweek's Thomas reports. 'If McCain said yes he
would expand the role of vice president to include secretary of Defense and
the overall control of foreign policy. McCain exclaimed, 'You're out of your
mind. I don't even know if it's constitutional, and it certainly wouldn't
sell.'' Kerry was thwarted and furious. 'Why the f--- didn't he take it?
After what the Bush people did to him...'"

Open Letter to Senator Frist about the Chairmanship of the Judiciary Committee

Senator Frist,

I implore you not to allow Senator Specter to become chairman of the Judiciary. His recent arrogance about judges that President Bush should and should not appoint is feckless liberalism at its worst. The assumptive power he pretends to own is not his yet and should not be his.

As a Republican volunteer in Virginia and Florida I would be sorely disappointed if Specter is put in as the Chairman. We worked countless hours to elect President Bush and for specific reasons. The obligation of the ruling majority is to listen to the people who put you there. Please do not mistake our current enthusiasm and support for the Republican victory as license to ignore our base values. We will not soon forget such an outrage.

On a lighter note: Congratulations for the well deserved victory. We are amazed at the courage and hours you and your colleagues put in for this election. It is well deserved!

Justin Hart

Found: That "Imaginary" Evangelical Voter

As the polls are now showing... Evangelical came out in droves much to the vindication of Karl Rove who has been dissed again and again for "imagining" over 2 million evangelical voters who sat out the 2000 election. I think we can put this to rest now.

One more time: I bid you stand, men of the West!

Men of the West! Today, we fight!

The rage begins (understandably)

Here's a kind email I received:

I saw your webpage and really think that (a) You have too mcuh time on your hands (b) You drank the Kool-Aid Der Komisar Karl Rove was offering (c) You're a complete and utter f***** moron who will believe anything and everything told to him or (d) All of the above.

I know D is never, ever the answer, but in this case, with so much evidence (Unlike the case against Iraq, the ORIGINAL case for war asshat) I have to go with D. You are indeed a complete and utter f***** moron who drank the Kool-Aid and will believe anything the Republicans tell you.

Do us all a favor and go play in some traffic.

Glad to know you have some real arguments behind your rage. Perhaps if you took enough time to categorize and articulate actual rebuttals attacking my support for President Bush I would not be calling him President Bush today.

So, what happens to MoveOn.org?

... it currently lies dormant.

Frozen, in eternal pre-election "prowess" never to change again?

Jonah Goldberg is in rare form!

(all quotes from the Corner)

HEY JIM JEFFORDS [Jonah Goldberg]
By the way, great call! on switch parties. Seriously, boffo move my man!

CONGRATS TO BOB SHRUM [Jonah Goldberg]
He keeps his perfect presidential record.

CAPTURING THE MEDIA MOMENT [Jonah Goldberg]
If I were a political cartoonist, I would draw Dan Rather or Katie Couric with a thought-bubble over his/her head. Inside would be the front page of the New York Times.

SCENT OF A TERRORIST [Jonah Goldberg]
(apologies to Al Pacino)
And Osama Bin Laden wherever you are out there ... f*** you too!

OH...ALSO... [Jonah Goldberg]
To the Guardian newspaper. Ha-ha (in Simpson's tone). Clarke County went for Bush. Sucks to be you too.

OH...I ALMOST FORGOT. [Jonah Goldberg]
Hey France: Sucks to be you.

NOW THAT HE'S NOT USING IT... [Jonah Goldberg]
Can John Kerry please tell us what his super-duper special terrific secret plan to fix Iraq was?

BY THE WAY... [Jonah Goldberg]
When I get back... if someone can explain to me what John Edwards did for that ticket, I'd love to know. He was supposed to make the south competitive. Brrrrrr: Wrong! He was supposed to gin up the rural voters. Brrrrr wrong! He was supposed to make economic populism work for Democrats.....Brrrrrr oh you get the point.

Edwards brought no substance, he brought no states, he brought (as far as I can tell right now) no vital demographics but he did bring pretty hair.

Thoughts about 2008 (A Mormon Head-to-Head)?

Let's look forward... (it's a an asenine venture, but still fun)

The Democrat run-off looks like: Hillary, Obama, Edwards, or even Harry Reid

The Republican run-off is a bit deeper: Guiliani, McCain, Frist, Arnold, and even Romney.

------------------

It's a long shot, but what are the implications of an all-Mormon Whitehouse race? Namely, Romney vs. Reid.

Anatomy of the Left's Implosion

First, the word was fight:

It feels like only Air America and a couple of posts on Kos are telling us to keep fighting. Where is our media machine? Every elected Democrat should stop licking their wounds and be countering the Bush "I'm the winner" media onslaught. We need a left wing spin machine!!! I feel like Edwards is practically all by himself right now. Let's get it together people.

Then Kerry concedes:

DAMN! How can Kerry betray us like this? I am so angry! It should have been Howard Dean. WTF is wrong with Kerry and the Dems? I want Terry MacAuliffe's head on a stick right NOW.

Next admission of the real issues:

Morals, Fear and Propaganda trumped reason. Religious fundamentalists won this election. Rationality is a now a minority in the USA. Extremism can only be countered by extremism. There will be cultural wars in the USA. Abortion no longer will be a federal right. The US will be attacked again after the Sunni Triangle is leveled. The Housing Bubble will burst. The raising federal debt will cut baby boomer retirement. Canada is not a new home if you have no money. The coming Dark Ages in the USA will reinforce religious extremism not enlightenment.

Next, sober advice

If you're a Democrat, here's my advice. Do what the Republicans did in 1998. Get simple. Find a compelling salesman and get him ready to run for president in 2008. Put aside your quibbles about preparation, stature, expertise, nuance, and all that other hyper-sophisticated garbage that caused you to nominate Kerry. You already have legions of people with preparation, stature, expertise, and nuance ready to staff the executive branch of the federal government. You don't need one of them to be president. You just need somebody to win the White House and appoint them to his administration. And that will require all the simplicity, salesmanship, and easygoing humanity they don't have.

Finally, denial, blame and hatred

The terrorists are not in Iraq, or Iran. They are in the Vichy government in DC.

Support the troops that oppose them, wherever they may be.

Impeachment 05'

Cheney first.
Who is printing the bumper stickers?

John D. has a great post

The Corner on National Review Online: "A physics Ph.D. candidate at a very respectable university: 'Mr. Derbyshire---I felt a strong need to actually figure out John Kerry's odds of winning Ohio in a somewhat rigorous fashion. Not too promising for the Kerry campaign: I figure there are 175000 provisional ballots out there, as that seems to be the high end of official estimates. If we assume that each has a 50% chance of being counted (and that's way high, it's really probably more like 15-20%) then having more ballots than Bush's margin of victory is a 360-sigma event, which comes out to a probability of 2.8*10^-28145. [That's a number with 28,144 zeros to the right of the decimal point, then some nonzero digits: 2, 8,...---JD] But hey, it could happen. And if every one of those votes goes for John Kerry (probability of this is around 10^-850000 or so) then Kerry might just pull this off.' "

Zogby debunked. 2004 Record Worst Ever

Here are the Zogby vs. real numbers. Done. De-mythed. 2000 was a fluke. He has no pulse on the nation.

Arizona
Zogby had it +6% for Bush
Final +11% for Bush

Arkansas
Zogby had it +3% for Bush
Final +9% for Bush

Colorado
Zogby had it too close to call
Final +7% for Bush

Florida
Zogby had it +.1% for Kerry and trending Kerry
Final +5% for Bush

Iowa
Zogby had it +5% for Kerry
Final still TBD

Michigan
Zogby had it +6% for Kerry
Final Result +3% for Kerry

Minnesota
Zogby had it +6% for Kerry
Final Result +3% for Kerry

Missouri
Zogby had it +3% for Bush
Final Result +8% for Bush

Nevada
Zogby had it too close to call
Final +3% for Bush

New Hampshire
Zogby had it +5% for Kerry
Final Result +1% for Kerry

New Mexico
Zogby had it +3% for Kerry
Final - still TBD

North Carolina
Zogby had it +3% for Bush
Final +13% for Bush

Oregon
Zogby had it +10% for Kerry
Final Result +5% for Kerry

Ohio
Zogby had it +2% for Bush but trending Kerry
Final TBD

Pennsylvania
Zogby had it trending Kerry
Final Result +3% for Kerry

Tennessee
Zogby had it +4% for Bush
Final +14% for Bush

Virginia
Zogby had it slight edge for Bush
Final +8% for Bush

Washington
Zogby had it +10% for Kerry
Final Result +7% for Kerry

West Virginia
Zogby had it +4% for Bush
Final +14% for Bush

Wisconsin
Zogby had it +6% for Kerry
Final Result +1% for Kerry

What the left is saying

What the left is saying:

BuzzMachine, is a stand-up honest guy with a great deal of integrity. Here's his open letter to Kerry.

Meteor Blades on Daily Kos:

We lost on 11/2. Came in second place in a crucial battle whose damage may still be felt decades from now. The despicable record of our foes makes our defeat good reason for disappointment and fear. Even without a mandate over the past four years, they have behaved ruthlessly at home and abroad, failing to listen to objections even from members of their own party. With the mandate of a 3.6-million vote margin, one can only imagine how far their arrogance will take them in their efforts to dismantle 70 years of social legislation and 50+ years of diplomacy.

Poster at DKos:

It is time, and past time that we dismantled the DNC, tossed out its tired, failed leadership, and built a better party. For the past four years, John Kerry, and every other "Democrat" in the House and Senate gave GWB a free ride, it cost them in the mid terms, and it has now cost them again. Terry McAuliffe must be fired, and never given a job with the Democratic party again. His policy of "be moderate, right leaning Democrats, try to act more Republican" is an obvious failure.

More of the same:

I'm a veteran of the anti-war protests of the 60's. I can't believe what I'm reading here. What we need is people marching in the streets. We need a read left in this country again. We need to be visible, not skulk away.
If the national Democratic "leaders" aren't fighting for us, we need to replace them. Lets get more Obamas in there and get rid of the dinosaurs who have sold out and won't fight back against Bush.

This from a lay pollster:

North Carolina
Zogby had it +3% for Bush
Final +13% for Bush

More proof that we aren't winning with a southern strategy. We've got to try something else.

The culture of the Northeast begins with equality and fairness. Those are the core values of democracy. And you can't have democracy without reality. Based on real information.

Another rant:

I've told friends that having Bush in the White House is like having Al Capone running the government. Well, a majority of Americans just voted to re-elect the crook. Karl Rove's dirty and divisive campaign tricks worked. The majority of Americans were bamboozled. The election last night was good for you if...

BREAKING NEWS: Only 135,000 Votes left

Fox News is reporting that the Secretary of State shows only 135,000 provisional ballots. Its over.

Daily Kos Laments

Daily Kos :: Political Analysis and other daily rants on the state of the nation.: "We lost on 11/2. Came in second place in a crucial battle whose damage may still be felt decades from now. The despicable record of our foes makes our defeat good reason for disappointment and fear. Even without a mandate over the past four years, they have behaved ruthlessly at home and abroad, failing to listen to objections even from members of their own party. With the mandate of a 3.6-million vote margin, one can only imagine how far their arrogance will take them in their efforts to dismantle 70 years of social legislation and 50+ years of diplomacy. "

Look... they don't have the numbers

It looks like Bush will take NV, NM and IA. If he does and Kerry would somehow gets OH it won't matter. The count will be Bush: 265 and Kerry: 269.

Victory!

Congrats to everyone! We did it!

Look at the numbers.. Bush nearly has it

More on my rollercoaster of emotions today...

Florida seems in the bag. No question. If Bush wins Ohio this thing is over.

Bush leads ohio 49 to 41? Kerry +4? Bush 47-41

Confusion reigns because of my anxiety:

The Corner had bush up 49-41 at first then Kerry up 4, now I hear bush up 47-41.

I dunno?!

Just Voted

Just voted in Ashburn, VA. Lines enormous. Lots of excitement.

On my way out the door, my 18 month old woke up... so I took him with me. It made the vote that much more memorable and important.

Daily Kos final rant

Daily Kos :: Political Analysis and other daily rants on the state of the nation.: "Good morning, Kosopotamians. Today is our day. Final exam. The day some of us here have worked toward since the Supreme Court anointed George Bush America�s president 47 months ago. The day some were beginning to think would never arrive. The day that obsessed some of us so much that, after the results are announced, we will have to reintroduce ourselves to our families, our studies, our other lives.

Today is the day we have to do what our candidate has proved so adept at. We have to close. One more burst making sure that the Democratic-leaning people we met on the phone or at their front door in the past few months get their butts to the polling stations if they haven�t yet done so. Making sure that every voter-suppression effort is halted and/or duly noted. And, of course, making sure we don�t fall into the irony of forgetting to cast our own ballots. "

Landslide or Nail-biter?

OK... so here's my take. All of the internal polls show some great numbers for Bush. But, all of the state poll averages (hat tip to RCP) show movement to Kerry. See the graphic below:



In the end, I like the chances of a Bush landslide. Bush will win with 297 electoral votes

Obi-Wan and Qui-Gon

Kerry Spot points to the opinions of Obi-Wan and Qui-Gon:

"Bush will win, pretty decisively," Qui-Gon said. "Maybe, worst case scenario, it's 51-49 [percent]. But everyone has looked at how the voters will decide too cerebrally. You walk into that voting booth, you pull the curtain behind you, and you're alone. It's the centerpiece of our democratic process, and voters take that responsibility seriously. It's almost a religious experience, a sacred rite. And they’re going to go with who's going to keep them safe. Who's been tested. It's an emotional, gut reaction."

Oh, make it so, make it so!

My 11th hour support for Bush

Just made my 15 calls to supporters in Florida. Great experience. Wonderful people. I'm excited. The Bush site won't let me call anyone else... but it was a great experience!

My Ohio source tells me...

Just spoke to a very good friend who has been involved in Utah and national political campaigns for a very long time. She's helping out in Ohio organizing the grass roots effort. She said: "I have never seen a more organized campaign. We have major coordination all the way down to the precinct level. Everyone is very excited. I don't know about the organization of the other camp, but our side is on the ground going door to door with major follow-up."

Probabilities and Predictive Markets

Asymmetrical Information has a great post about probabilities and predictive markets.

Is China predicting a Bush win?

Over the weekend China dissed the "Bush doctrine" as if anticipating a Bush win.

Now we learn that China is shutting down 1,600 Internet cafes. Does a Bush win take the students to the street?

This is scary

Halloween costumes for the insane left:

Roller Coaster Again

The Corner and Kerry Spot folks are calming the crowds down with some type of perspective on the Ohio question. Jonah makes a good point which Spoons agrees with. Here are some other points:

Good for Bush	Good For Kerry
As of 3:00PM EST
Electablog sees a large victory one way or another Someone on Slate almost endoreses Bush	DailyKos sees Dems picking up the Senate
As of 11:00AM EST
AFF's great article on Bush and winning Kerry's discharge questions BuzzMachine endorses Kerry C&F's priceless editorial cartoon Mark Steyn promises to quit if Kerry wins Futures markets still predict a Bush win Ms. Postrel endorses Bush Lessig is still going on about Bush cheating! Quinnipiac still has Bush taking FL	SIM players wetting their pants. Probably a sign that Kerry will win We won't have hypo-allergenic cats after all, maybe Brad DeLong is a smart guy and still in the Kerry camp while comparing Bush to 1984 BuzzMachine endorses Kerry
As of 10:00AM EST
Polipundit puts together a good analysis of the NYTimes poll Read the NYTimes/CBS poll for yourself Powerline has the scoop on a Brett Favre endoresement playing on phones Curt Schilling in the game for Bush Latest Dowd memo shows some good signs Averaging polls gives Bush an electoral edge Barone's column today	Brett Favre gave the Redskins a good whipping, setting up a superstitious win for Kerry Judges rule against challengers in polling places Gallup Poll New voters could definately win this for Kerry Barone's column today Dem polling blogs do make some sense and logic

Roller Coaster Emotions

Folks at NRO are bummed. Ohio numbers and WI do not look good for the President.

Listen folks. Bush can still win with those if he takes NM or NH AND wins Iowa. These results below assume Bush will win Florida:



This give Bush 265 and Kerry 269.

Bush wins | Kerry wins - (updates throughout the day)

Good for Bush	Good For Kerry
As of 11:00AM EST
AFF's great article on Bush and winning Kerry's discharge questions BuzzMachine endorses Kerry C&F's priceless editorial cartoon Mark Steyn promises to quit if Kerry wins Futures markets still predict a Bush win Ms. Postrel endorses Bush Lessig is still going on about Bush cheating! Quinnipiac still has Bush taking FL	SIM players wetting their pants. Probably a sign that Kerry will win We won't have hypo-allergenic cats after all, maybe Brad DeLong is a smart guy and still in the Kerry camp while comparing Bush to 1984 BuzzMachine endorses Kerry
As of 10:00AM EST
Polipundit puts together a good analysis of the NYTimes poll Read the NYTimes/CBS poll for yourself Powerline has the scoop on a Brett Favre endoresement playing on phones Curt Schilling in the game for Bush Latest Dowd memo shows some good signs Averaging polls gives Bush an electoral edge Barone's column today	Brett Favre gave the Redskins a good whipping, setting up a superstitious win for Kerry Judges rule against challengers in polling places Gallup Poll New voters could definately win this for Kerry Barone's column today Dem polling blogs do make some sense and logic