Latest Polls: Tighter than 2000! Could Iowa decide things, NH or NM?!

OK. So things are tightening and moving in Kerry's favor right now. Could Iowa (with 7 votes) be the key!? Look at the chart below (with numbers taken from various polls:



With the chart as is the count is Bush 264 and Kerry 220 with 54 in the toss up column. Kerry is leading or tied with Bush in almost all of these states (but its still very close. It looks like Bush may hold onto Florida. If that is the case here's one scenario. We know that Kerry must win Ohio if he doesn't get Florida. If Kerry wins NH, NM, IA, OR, MN, and OH then he wins 273 to 264. But if Bush wins IA he wins 271 to 266.

But even NH or NM would swing things! This could be even tighter than 2000!

UPDATE: Looks like my analysis is on par with what RCP is calling
here.