Latest Electoral Breakdown

(click on graphic to see larger version)



red indicates trending Bush, Blue indicates trending Kerry
Here's my analysis. The next days will be telling as more polls come in. Look for the polls in Iowa and Ohio to be the most significant. Here's why.

Notice that Bush is ahead in every state that he won in 2000 with the exception of NH. Bush is also ahead in WI (way ahead!) and Iowa. Meanwhile Kerry has to defend: NM, OR, MN, PA. These states are all in the toss up pile. Without these states (and the NH tossup) the score is: Bush: 291, Kerry 200 (as noted on RealClearPolitics.com)

Even if Kerry wins all of the toss ups, the score would then be 291 to 247. In such a scenario Ohio does nothing for Kerry. He needs to win either Ohio and Iowa or just Florida to have a chance. But again, this assumes that he wins ALL of the toss up states. The bottom line (still) is that if Kerry does not win Ohio or Florida, he has a fat chance of winning.