Thursday, September 30, 2004

My pre-debate thoughts...

I think that Kerry will win the debate... or it will be a draw... or Bush will kill Kerry (do I have all the bets covered here?)

In truth, I think that Kerry has the upper hand here. If he performs even moderately well he could win... because the expectations are so high and a lot of people are predicting a Bush victory, if Kerry comes across as a likeable guy, everyone will be talking about the stark contrast to the GMA interview or the ugly stumping we're so used to. So we will see.

Justin

John Kerry's wrinkle in time...

"We should not have gone to war knowing the information that we know today."

That would be great except that we logically would not or could not know the information we know today then, because we didn't know it then, because then is then.

Wednesday, September 29, 2004

Dems getting desperate

I just received this email from the DNC and Kerry campaign. Are they short on funds?

Dear Justin,

I am writing to personally ask you to stand with me on one of the most critical days of our campaign. Tomorrow at the University of Miami in Coral Gables, Florida, I will debate George W. Bush. And just 90 minutes after that debate draws to a close, the Democratic Party will reach a crucial end of quarter fundraising deadline.

To keep the Democratic Party's essential October activities on track, we have to raise $2 million in less than 36 hours. So you and I both have some important work to do.

I will carry our values and our determination to lead America in a new, more promising direction into that auditorium in Coral Gables. And I will count on you to help this history-making grassroots campaign meet the biggest deadline it has ever faced.

Do your part to meet our deadline:

https://www.democrats.org/support/kerry.html

When I step to that podium tomorrow night, I know I will be facing a determined opponent.

But I will stand there with the courage of my convictions and the confidence that stems from having millions of grassroots supporters like you standing with me.

Bush and Cheney may believe that they can hide their failures and get away without acknowledging their costly mistakes for 34 more days. But you and I know better. We know that the truth is catching up with them.

So today, tomorrow, and every day to follow, we are going to put it all on the line. We are going to make the final month of this campaign one of the most memorable months in American history. We are going to wage an unrelenting grassroots campaign that will sweep aside all of the false attacks and un-American appeals to fear that are the driving force of our opponents' efforts.

I know how much this election means to you. And I know how much you are counting on me. I am counting on you too. With the September 30 deadline almost here, we Democrats need you to act now. Let us work side-by-side and win.

Thank you,
John Kerry

Tuesday, September 28, 2004

Polls tightening but Bush still leads

You can see from this graphic (taken from a snapshot of an excel spreadsheet I use) that Bush still leads in key states... but that his lead is narrowing. These numbers are taken from RealClearPolitics.com. The blue shows where polls are narrowing from their previous numbers. As you can see, things seem to be closing up a bit:



Saturday, September 25, 2004

AP/Jennier Loven, Under Fire

This is not the first time that the Blogosphere has taken J. Loven to task: See for example: Joe Kelly's The Sake of Argument from last year.


Letter to the editor seem to take her to task as well:



This is from Dec, 2003:


Today was my first visit to your website and I wanted to peruse the content to see what more there was on discussion of the Patriot Act, an unquestionable abomination in my never humble opinion.



I visited the Point Blank page and saw a discussion on Bush and the economy (BUSH AND THE ECONOMY 11.18.03) and could not help but respond to the comments I saw being made by Jennifer Loven of the AP. Her statement that the economic downturn did not begin until March 2001 is flatly false. It actually began in February of 2000 and gained momentum throughout 2000. The March 2001 point is when the effects were becoming obvious on the market and on public sentiment.



Yes, I understand that Ms. Loven's point was to bash Bush and truth had no place in her diatribe, but, at least she could get her facts straight before shooting her mouth off on a subject for which she is NO expert.The .com bust, Greenspan's constant raising of the interest rate, followed up with 9/11 - all of these factors were the causes of the economic downturn from which we have not yet recovered. Is Bush to blame in there anywhere?


...


Letters to the Editor
Published December 17, 2003
St. Petersburg Times

Friday, September 24, 2004

The Race at the Polls

Scenarios:
Let's say things work out this way

These are the basic states in contention based on the latest polling:


































































































State (EV) Latest Poll Avg. 2000 results
CO (9) Bush +3.8 Bush (8.4)
FL (27) Bush +4.3 Bush (.1)
IA (7) Bush +4.3 Goe (.03)
ME (4) Kerry +2.3 Gore (5.1)
MI (17) Kerry 5.0 Gore (5.2)
MN (10) TIE Gore (2.4)
MO (11) Bush +6.7 Bush (3.3)
NC (15) Bush +5.8 Bush (12.9)
NH (4) Bush +1.7 Bush (1.3)
NJ (15) Kerry +1.4 (Gore 15)
NM (5) Kerry +0.5 Gore (.06)
NV (5) Bush +7.0 Bush (3.5)
OH (20) Bush +5.8 Bush (3.5)
OR (7) Kerry +0.7 Gore (.05)
PA (21) Kerry 1.7 Gore (4.2)
WA (11) Kerry +9.3 Gore (5.9)
WI (10) Bush +6.5 Gore (.2)
WV (5) Bush +3.2 Bush (3.2)

Without these states the score stands: Bush (182) and Kerry (153).


The states highlighted in yellow are those that are really close in the polls right now.


Even if Kerry wins all of the states that Gore won last time (IA, MI, ME, MN, NJ, NM, OR, PA) the score will be 274 to 258.


Notice, how the only state that is a tight race and that Bush won last year is NH, While Kerry has tight races in (IA, MN, NM, OR and PA) just to defend Gore's wins there.


Furthermore, as many people have pointed out, if Gore does not pull out a win in OH or FL, his chances are slim.


Iraq, a Response

I rarely comment on the emails that this lady sends to my wife. (In fact, I admire her activism) But this time I had to jump in. Here is her email:



"Iraq is on the mend" says "W" to the UN, and he lies again . . .

Facts:


1) Attacks on US and other troops in August averaged 90 per day -- five times the level last winter.


2) Every day 2 US soldiers are killed, 30 are wounded.


3) The number of insurgents in Iraq may have quadrupled since last year.


4) Crude oil production in Iraq is only 2/3 what it was pre-war!


SOME MEND!


And if you still don't think this war was about oil and oil profits, consider this . . . from the A.P. . . .


"One of the key issues is that the amount of excess production available worldwide is about 1% of total demand (82 million barrels/ day) leaving little breathing room in the event of a prolonged supply interruption.


See National Priorities Project for verification of poionts 1-4.



First, in response to your points:



You point to some statistics, so let's talk statistics.



I'm not sure who is a better judge of how things are going in Iraq, Democratic talking heads or the actual Iraqis.



  • A recent survey taken by the respected IIACCS in July and August showed that 51% of Iraqis think things are moving in the right direction (only 31% said the "wrong direction"). Compare that to an Annenburg survey during that same period where only 37% of Americans thought things were going well in Iraq.

  • Unemployment is roughly 12% better than some European countries (the figure is 9% in Baghdad).

  • Another Oxford survey found that household monthly income increased 72% from October 2003 to June 2004.

  • Yes, the Iraqi people are on the whole worried for the security of their families but nearly 70% said "they were hopeful for the future."

  • Nearly 87% say they plan to vote in the upcoming elections (what's the rate here in the US?)

  • So when George Bush says Iraq is on the mend, he is on solid ground. Is there continuing violence. Yes. Are troops dying. Yes. Are they dying in vain! No. What is an acceptable level of casualties for you? 3,000, 2,000, 1,000, 0? As the great Georges Clemenceau said: "War is a series of catastrophes that results in victory." —



Some say that Iraq is the next Vietnam. Really? We're about 49,000 deaths short of that, there's not nuclear Soviet Union or China nearby and there is no 3 million man army against us under the banner of Communism - in short, the comparison is moot. The best information I've found is from Iraqis themselves and American troops. In closing, here's an email from a troop on the ground who has a very different opinion



[For those of you who haven't gotten my "Thoughts" before, I'm a Major in the USMC on the Multi-National Corps staff in Baghdad. The analysts and pundits who don't see what I see on a daily basis, in my opinion, have very little credibility to talk about the situation - especially if they have yet to set foot in Iraq. Everything Americans believe about Iraq is simply perception filtered through one's latent prejudices until you are face-to-face with reality. If you haven't seen, or don't remember, the John Wayne movie, The Green Berets , you should watch it this weekend. Pay special attention to the character of the reporter, Mr. Beckwith (the Journalist in the movie) . His characters experience is directly related to the situation here. You'll have a different perspective on Iraq after the movie is over.]



The US media is abuzz today with the news of an intelligence report that is very negative about the prospects for Iraq's future. CNN's website says, "[The] National Intelligence Estimate was sent to the White House in July with a classified warning predicting the best case for Iraq was 'tenuous stability' and the worst case was civil war." That report, along with the car bombings and kidnappings in Baghdad in the past couple days are being portrayed in the media as more proof of absolute chaos and the intransigence of the insurgency.



From where I sit, at the Operational Headquarters in Baghdad, that just isn't the case. Let's lay out some background, first about the "National Intelligence Estimate." The most glaring issue with its relevance is the fact that it was delivered to the White House in July . That means that the information that was used to derive the intelligence was gathered in the Spring - in the immediate aftermath of the April battle for Fallujah, and other events. The report doesn't cover what has happened in July or August, let alone September.



The naysayers will point to the recent battles in Najaf and draw parallels between that and what happened in Fallujah in April. They aren't even close. The bad guys did us a HUGE favor by gathering together in one place and trying to make a stand. It allowed us to focus on them and defeat them. Make no mistake, Al Sadr's troops were thoroughly smashed. The estimated enemy killed in action is huge. Before the battles, the residents of the city were afraid to walk the streets. Al Sadr's enforcers would seize people and bring them to his Islamic court where sentence was passed for religious or other violations. Long before the battles people were looking for their lost loved ones who had been taken to "court" and never seen again. Now Najafians can and do walk their streets in safety. Commerce has returned and the city is being rebuilt. Iraqi security forces and US troops are welcomed and smiled upon. That city was liberated again. It was not like Fallujah - the bad guys lost and are in hiding or dead.



You may not have even heard about the city of Samarra. Two weeks ago, that Sunni Triangle city was a "No-go" area for US troops. But guess what? The locals got sick of living in fear from the insurgents and foreign fighters that were there and let them know they weren't welcome. They stopped hosting them in their houses and the mayor of the town brokered a deal with the US commander to return Iraqi government sovereignty to the city without a fight. The people saw what was on the horizon and decided they didn't want their city looking like Fallujah in April or Najaf in August.



Boom, boom, just like that two major "hot spots" cool down in rapid succession. Does that mean that those towns are completely pacified? No. What it does mean is that we are learning how to do this the right way. The US commander in Samarra saw an opportunity and took it - probably the biggest victory of his military career and nary a shot was fired in anger. Things will still happen in those cities, and you can be sure that the bad guys really want to take them back. Those achievements, more than anything else in my opinion, account for the surge in violence in recent days - especially the violence directed at Iraqis by the insurgents. Both in Najaf and Samarra ordinary people stepped out and took sides with the Iraqi government against the insurgents, and the bad guys are hopping mad. They are trying to instill fear once again. The worst thing we could do now is pull back and let that scum back into people's homes and lives.



So, you may hear analysts and prognosticators on CNN, ABC and the like in the next few days talking about how bleak the situation is here in Iraq, but from where I sit, it's looking significantly better now than when I got here. The momentum is moving in our favor, and all Americans need to know that, so please, please, pass this on to those who care and will pass it on to others. It is very demoralizing for us here in uniform to read & hear such negativity in our press. It is fodder for our enemies to use against us and against the vast majority of Iraqis who want their new government to succeed. It causes the American public to start thinking about the acceptability of "cutting our losses" and pulling out, which would be devastating for Iraq for generations to come, and Muslim militants would claim a huge victory, causing us to have to continue to fight them elsewhere (remember, in war "Away" games are always preferable to "Home" games). Reports like that also cause Iraqis begin to fear that we will pull out before we finish the job, and thus less willing to openly support their interim government and US/Coalition activities. We are realizing significant progress here - not propaganda progress, but real strides are being made. It's terrible to see our national morale, and support for what we're doing here, jeopardized by sensationalized stories hyped by media giants whose #1 priority is advertising income followed closely by their political agenda; getting the story straight falls much further down on their priority scale, as Dan Rather and CBS News have so aptly demonstrated in the last week. "




Tuesday, September 21, 2004

Is this lady the memo source?

Is this Lucy Ramirez? Executive Director of Nuestra Clinica del Valle in Texas? The only connection I can make is this honoring of Lucy by Texas congressman Ruben Hinojosa, Texas Democrat. Long shot, but that's all I got. The clinic was founded in 1971, perhaps W. stopped by for a physical? :)

Monday, September 20, 2004

Dan Rather duped (again)

Dan Rather was duped today when he claimed that Castro's regime was harmless and treats its people well.

Friday, September 17, 2004

Conspiracy Think

OK, this is outrageous... but stay with me here. What if there is a left-leaning mindset at USAToday/CNN/Gallup. It goes something like this: the only chance that Kerry has is to show Bush peaking early and then Kerry can grab momentum as the "come-back-kid." After all, everyone likes the underdog.

OK, I'm a bit off my rocker here. But it shows you how much trust I have in the mainstream media.

Thursday, September 16, 2004

Word to "The Corner"

Here's a suggestion for raising funds (for the lawsuit or otherwise).

Have a fundraising drive with the promise that if you reach a certain dollar amount you will put up a comments (0) | trackback (0) feature for The Corner. I know that this will probably look more like: comments (243) | trackback (45) for every post, but I guarantee you, it will be worth it! The blogs will hail you as "compliant" and the Corner will really show off the traffic it really gets.

Wednesday, September 15, 2004

Video and Commentary: CBS News from last night

Take a look:

click here to download and view the video

Tuesday, September 14, 2004

What if the memos exist?

What if the memos do exist? Not the CBS forgeries, but something like them. Something that the secretary typed up that raises similar questions. I think all sensible people might conclude that Bush didn't show up for a physical... but now think...

There's been lots of speculation as to who gave these memos out. Now this is the top story on the Internet and at the water cooler... but what if...

What if CBS suddenly appears on the scene with the actual memos! These memos would get frontline press and surely bring a sour taste on the Bush campaign...

What if (conspiratorially speaking) CBS put forth the forged documents, anticipating the controversy, creating a hoopla and then putting forth the real ones?!

Another Liberal Litmus Test?

It seems that Rather, CBS, and other hard left diehards will continue to defend these thoroughly discredited memos. I predict that this will churn itself into a decisive litmus test for the left.

For example, you can easily identify a blind lefty by asking: "Rosenbergs, guilty or innocent?" Every reasonable person who examines the evidence against the Rosenbergs will conclude that they were guilty as charged. But for many diehards, they must continue the facade to sustain their "red scare" charges. In the near future, the left must defend the CBS memos to sustain their belief in the Mainstream Media.

Saturday, September 11, 2004

Classic Chris Wallace

I have to admit that I was a little disappointed about Chris Wallace replacing Tony Snow on Fox News Sunday. But he does a decent job and he dishes it out to the right and the left.

But this little clip of Chris sounding off about the 60 minutes scandal is just classic: You gotta see it!

click here

Ben Barnes, Contributor

Just in case you weren't convinced that Ben Barnes is the partisan that he is. Review his contributions over the last several years:

click here

Looks like he has given approx. $2500 to Republican candidates since 1979... out of literally hundreds of thousands of dollars to Democratic candidates.

Most notably his contribution of $20,000 to the Democratic Senatorial Campaign in 1997.

Mother Jones ranks Barnes as the top 23rd donor putting 92% to Democrats

As noted elsewhere, Barnes and his company (Entrecorp) hosted a reception at the Boston DNC:

6 p.m.-8 p.m. Friday
"Entrecorp Inc. Reception
Location: Isabella Stewart Gardner Museum, 2 Palace Road, Boston
Host: Entrecorp Inc. & Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee "

Dynamic Truth has a good overview of this

Friday, September 10, 2004

Jonah Goldberg, Prophet

Yesterday on the Corner, Jonah Goldberg predicted: "If they turn out to be forgeries, expect the Salonish types to very quickly float the idea that Karl Rove orchestrated the whole thing to make the anti-Bush side look desperate."

After dropping off my kids I was listening to WTOP News here in D.C. Tim Russert was talking about the memo scandal and said: "What if this is a sting?" He went on to say: "What if someone knew that CBS was doing this story, forged these docs to embarrass them and Kerry." Holy conspiracy theories Batman!

National Blog Victory Day

I propose a national holiday! Or at least a celebration worth noting. Score a dozen points to the blogs. On September 9th, 2004, Powerline and about a dozen other blogs made a serious strike into the heart of the main stream media. The patron God of bloggers (or at least a cousin God) Matt Drudge, put us on the map and media outlets around the world are actually giving the blogs credit.

Let us never forget September 9, 2004, Day of the Blog!

Justin

Thursday, September 09, 2004

Opinion Duel: Point Miller

John J. Miller just destroyed Jonathan Cohn on today's opinion duel. Read it for yourself:

Hi Jonathan,

I've just read your link attempting to claim that the president's zinger about the New York Times was "dishonest." I've read it several times, in fact. I simply don't see any dishonesty. Not a shred. Bush's simple point remains wholly intact: It's terribly easy for people to become pessimistic about a situation when they don't have the advantage of historical hindsight. I suppose we'll have to let our readers look at the evidence and decide for themselves.

And yes, I maintain that there's a significant difference between the Cheney/McCain position on the B-2 and John Kerry's record on it. You cite a post-Cold War comment from McCain suggesting that the time had come to pull the plug on the B-2. Fair enough. Kerry, however, was opposing the B-2 much earlier. He wanted to eliminate it in the midst of the Cold War. Running for the Senate in 1984, he included it in a list of military programs he would cancel. (His list also included the B-1 bomber, the Apaches helicopter, the Patriot missile, the F-15, F-14A, and F-14D jets, the AV-8B Harrier jet, the Aegis air-defense cruiser, and the Trident missile system. He further urged reductions for the M1 Abrams tank, the Bradley Fighting Vehicle, the Tomahawk cruise missile, and the F-16 jet. My main source for this is a Boston Globe article by Brian C. Mooney, published June 19, 2003.)

Kerry was elected lieutenant governor of Massachusetts in 1982 as a nuclear-freeze candidate. In 1983, he wrote a revealing letter to a constituent: "What we as citizens can tell our government is that President Reagan should reorder his priorities. We don't need expensive and exotic weapons systems." Campaigning for the Senate in 1984, when he wanted to slash all the programs mentioned above, he announced: "The biggest defense buildup since World War II has not given us a better defense. Today, Americans are more threatened by the prospect of war, not less so." Here's a Boston Globe editorial from 1984: "[Kerry] opposes the major new weapons systems sought by the President and goes substantially further than the mainstream of his party, as represented by Walter Mondale, by calling for outright reductions in defense spending rather than a mere slowdown in growth." I could continue with Kerry's record on missile defense and various other programs. But I think Zell Miller, in his speech last week, did a pretty good job of summing up Kerry's views: "Against, against, against!"

Last year, in an interview with the Boston Globe, Kerry allowed that some of his positions on national defense in the 1980s were "ill-advised." He added: "I think some of them are stupid in the context of the world we find ourselves in right now and the things that I've learned since then."

I'm tempted to propose a bumper sticker: "John Kerry: Stupid then, stupid now." But you say that you don't want to question Bush's intelligence, so I won't question Kerry's.

Oh, and before we quit the subject of Kerry being a liberal dove: During the first Bush administration, there was a final really important difference between the Cheney/McCain record on military issues and the Kerry record: Cheney and McCain supported the Gulf War; Kerry opposed it.

As usual, Kerry tried to have it both ways — even on an issue as black and white as the vote to authorize war against Iraq in 1991. Check out this report, which my colleague Ramesh Ponnuru filed two years ago:

"In early January 1991, constituent Walter Carter sent Kerry a letter urging him to back the war. He received two responses. A January 22 letter from the senator, addressed to Carter as though he were an opponent of the war, indicated that Kerry favored sanctions and opposed war. A January 31 letter said, 'From the outset of the invasion [of Kuwait by Iraq], I have strongly and unequivocally supported President Bush's response to the crisis and the policy goals he has established with our military deployment in the Persian Gulf.'"


I should probably add that your magazine has criticized Kerry on this matter as well, here.

Yesterday, I said that I did not understand Kerry's current views on Iraq and asked whether you could explain them. You did not. Hey, I understand: We're still trying to figure out what he thought in 1991.

— JJM

Wednesday, September 08, 2004

Why the Left Hates Dominance

One of the themes I hear from the left is that of dominance. Somehow, they see Bush and his gang of thugs going around the world imposing their world view and dominating everything in their path. Understanding their mindset can help us better understand how to respond to the left. Here are some of the phrases that are thrown around on the left that you'll encounter:

  • Imperial grand strategy - John Okenberry and others cite this motif which they stems from a May 2002 Pentagon plan. As Thomas Friedman puts it: "The imperial grand strategy is based on the assumption that the United States can gain “full spectrum dominance” through military programs that dwarf those of any potential coalition and that have useful side effects." They claim we do this to reduce social spending in the US by wrecking the economy.
  • Forward deterrence - this sounds logical enough. But this is a catch phrase to the left for everything wrong about pre-emption.
  • Arab facade - One claim is that the US is somehow protecting the Sauds and the Sauds are hiding all the weapons and terrorists.
    Chomsky
  • Bush, the crusader - Here's Chomsky: "But the central source of the new focus is the president himself, a man who once ran a baseball team in Texas and who has now become a born-again global crusader - in a way seen only a few times over the course of a century."
  • Full Spectrum Dominance - Ahh... this is the big phrase. Rahul Mahajan coined it, Chomsky promoted it and Al Gore used it in his MoveOn.org speech.

    This is a very brief look at an article I'm composing. Later I'll examine the origins of this. Here's your reading assignment:

    Rahul Mahajan
  • Dominance and Its Dilemmas Naom Chomsky
  • The Bush Doctrine: Preemption And Dominance
  • Bush and Sharon Pursue a Common Goal: Dominance Over the Middle East By Rachelle Marshall
  • Full Spectrum Dominance by Rahul Mahajan
  • Dissecting the Bush Doctrine

  • Tuesday, September 07, 2004

    Copernican/Ptolemaist Global Politics

    David Ignatius compares astronomy to American foreign policy:

    We Americans are sometimes like the ancient Greek astronomer Ptolemy. That is, we see the United States as the fixed center of the universe, with other nations and events revolving around us. I think it's one of our endearing qualities, this ebullient national self-centeredness -- except when it leads to errors in geopolitical navigation.


    Much of the same rhetoric slights (ever so slightly) America. While laws of physics are difficult to refute, David's analogy is very easy to dismiss (as he readily admits in the article). Is America the fixed center of the universe, absolutely. I'm not sure how political, economic, and even cultural angles of U.S. can be seen otherwise. I think this mindset stems from an a priori assumption that we somehow "demean" the rest of the world if we articulate (or even recognize) America as the center of the known universe. David's "endearing qualities" means essentially: "isn't that cute."

    The problem for the United States is the disconnect between this self-image and the way the rest of the world feels about us. Increasingly, people in other countries don't see America as that beacon of idealism but as something menacing. We can think they're wrong and we can choose to ignore them, but unfortunately, that won't change the way they feel.


    Here's the crux of the issue. Let's leave out the borderline socialist nations of the EU and get right to the point. As Ramesh Ponnuru points out in his book "What's So Great about America" if we do not recognize the qualms of Islamic Fundementalism we will fail to adequately defeat our enemies. Here's the difference between the Bush doctrine and the theory that David advocates... David feels that if another Islamic country hates our guts we can simply walk away . In his mind (and the mind of many on the left) if we leave them alone, they won't bother us. Do people increasingly hate the US... probably. Should that change our policy... perhaps only in execution, definately not in substance.

    I'm not sure that David is taking a swipe at the religious convictions of those on the right, but the "Copernican revolution" he proposes should only be considered in furthering established Ptolemaist goals. If a "kinder" approach to a nation establishes a goal to defeat our enemies then call it Copernican, call it diplomacy... but we do not change the stated doctrines and policies to change the polls in the world (which David cites liberally).

    One of John Kerry's strengths in this presidential campaign is that he's a Copernican. He understands that however powerful and important the United States may be, it isn't the fixed center of the world. There are other nations, traveling in their own orbits -- with their own cultures, traditions and values -- which must be taken into account. Kerry takes a lot of flak from Republicans for this view, but critics miss the point.

    You can't wish away America's present unpopularity in the world. It's a fact, and a dangerous one. The task of leadership, especially in a time of war -- is to gather support among other nations for U.S. policies. That's a subtle process, but it begins with a recognition that however blessed America may be, it doesn't have a God-given right to tell everyone else what to do. When America tries this approach (and Bush is hardly the first president who's guilty of it), it tends to make enemies.


    Yes, John Kerry is the Copernican candidate. But again we're not dealing with physics here. If Kerry would approach the world with anything but American supremacy (ala Madam Albright) we will lose. There's no reason to "wish away" the ill-will of others, we must defeat it.

    By the by David, can you point to an example where America tells everyone what to do. I think we've been pretty selective about where we stake our claim.

    Extending your analogy, why is the Sun the center of the galaxy, because it is the largest object. I ask again, what is the largest object in the political and economic universe? Using the theories of physics, what does everything then gravitate to.

    Friday, September 03, 2004

    Job numbers

    NRO Editors have an excellent take on the latest job numbers:

    The Corner on National Review Online: "As Ramesh reported, the economy added 144,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in August with the unemployment rate falling to 5.4 percent, its lowest level since October 2001.
    Some more jobs details: The latest payroll jump is the most since May, is the first acceleration in hiring in 5 months, and marks the 12th straight month that payroll jobs have climbed. July payroll numbers were also revised upward from 32,000 to 73,000.
    Election-year trivia: The unemployment rate at the same time in 1996 while Clinton was running for his second term was 5.1 percent -- 0.3 percent lower than it is today (although by the end of that year the rate had climbed to 5.4 percent, just where it is today).
    Assessment of the latest jobs numbers: Fine. Bush should talk the rate (which is historically low); the media will talk the payroll numbers (overlooking the Labor Department�s household survey, which according to our David Malpass is �more representative of the economy than the [payroll] survey�); and the Kerry camp will continue to call all job increases �unacceptable,� will discuss jobs lost since Bush took office (and weathered the Clinton recession, 9/11, corporate scandals, and the war on terror), and will never mention the unemployment rate. (NRO Financial�s Jerry Bowyer has pointed out that �the nation has historically focused on the unemployment rate when it comes to measuring the health of the jobs market.�)
    Early jobs buzz: The financial press is having trouble spinning this one negative. Their best thumbs-down talking point is that the payroll figure is lower than the consensus estimate (which was only a few jobs away at 150,000). Some are even saying that the latest Labor Department figures are a sign that the economy is pulling out of its summer slump.
    Final overall asses"

    Thursday, September 02, 2004

    Why Zell's Speech Will Win Bush the Election

    There is a host of blood-thirsty liberal newsmakers that will make hay of Zell's speech. Here are 5 reasons why his speech was an excellent political move:

    1) Zell was articulate and forceful: While Giuliani was articulate and funny, Zell's seriousness can't be underestimated. While he was forceful and at times rhetorical he was also extremely detailed in his litany against John Kerry

    2) Republicans have cover: Zell is a Democrat, that is our cover. If you're going to have someone smash the Democrats, it might as well be a Democrat. When the press laments the "tone" of Zell's speech we can claim, it was great and he's not really part of the party.

    3) Dick Cheney, puppy dog: Zell's outspoken nature made Dick Cheney look like a affable gentleman with no axe to grind

    4) Fire it up!: The base of the republican party is now fired up like never before.

    5) What's on tonight: Lastly, because of the controversy last night, everyone and their dog will be watching.

    Points all around for the GOP.

    Wednesday, September 01, 2004

    Who are the "economic girlie men"?

    I thought it might be useful to point out who the economic girlie men of today really are.

    First and foremost, you have "the most dangerous liberal in America," Paul Krugman. Fortunately, Luskin & Crew handle Krugman very nicely. Here's what they said in their most recent column at NRO:

    Apparently, America's most dangerous liberal pundit - who is also an economics professor at Princeton - has had to give up making not-so-brilliant predictions about the U.S. economy, as Krugman Truth Squad member Caroline Baum noted in an e-mail to me. In fact, they've all been so spectacularly not brilliant that Krugman was forced to say on Tim Russert's CNBC show several weeks ago: "compare me, uh, with anyone else, and I think you'll see that my forecasting record is not great."



    I guess I'll have to include John Kenneth Galbraith in here. The man is aged now but still only revered by liberals (see WFB on JKG). Famed for his shameless plug of communism in the 1980s, Galbraith's latest book takes on the "uncontrollable" corporations. WFB again defeats JKG soundly. One rejoinder from this article: Galbraith tells Buckley: "There is not one member of the faculty of Harvard University who is pro Bush." I know where I'm not sending my kid to school.


    John Kerry would have to be next since his comments are so prominent. The man (the party really) continues to claim that this is the worst economy since the Great Depression? What!??

    I've got plenty of fodder to defend this, but yesterday's Glassman article sums it up nicely. Here's Glassman:
    It is, frankly, a miracle that the U.S. economy is as good as it is today. How good? The Economist magazine says the U.S. will grow more than twice as fast as Europe this year, and our unemployment rate is roughly half that of France and Germany.

    More interesting, compare Bush's economy to Clinton's at the same stage. "On many of the key variables that voters care about, the economy looks uncannily like it did in the summer of 1996," writes Michael Mandel in the current Business Week: The unemployment and inflation rates today are precisely the same as at this time in 1996. Total job gains from January to July were somewhat higher in 1996 than in 2004, but in 1996 manufacturing jobs actually fell--while they rose by 81,000 in 2004. Also this year, GDP growth and productivity were considerably higher than in 1996.


    Let's throw out a couple more: William Greider. NRO's Moore had an interesting run in with Greider last year. His economic musings make no more sense than his politics. One column in "tribute" to the Gipper this summer said:
    Reagan's theory was really "trickle down" economics borrowed from the Republican 1920s (Harding-Coolidge-Hoover) and renamed "supply side." Cut tax rates for the wealthy; everyone else will benefit. As Reagan's budget director David Stockman confided to me at the time, the supply-side rhetoric "was always a Trojan horse to bring down the top rate." Many middle-class and poor citizens figured it out, even if reporters did not.

    I think we did figure it out... and it worked... Thanks


    Other honorable mentionables: Robert Kuttner, Ben H. Bagdikian, Noam Chomsky, Robert L. Heilbroner, Richard Hofstadter, and Eric Foner