The Race at the Polls

Scenarios:
Let's say things work out this way

These are the basic states in contention based on the latest polling:

State (EV)	Latest Poll Avg.	2000 results
CO (9)	Bush +3.8	Bush (8.4)
FL (27)	Bush +4.3	Bush (.1)
IA (7)	Bush +4.3	Goe (.03)
ME (4)	Kerry +2.3	Gore (5.1)
MI (17)	Kerry 5.0	Gore (5.2)
MN (10)	TIE	Gore (2.4)
MO (11)	Bush +6.7	Bush (3.3)
NC (15)	Bush +5.8	Bush (12.9)
NH (4)	Bush +1.7	Bush (1.3)
NJ (15)	Kerry +1.4	(Gore 15)
NM (5)	Kerry +0.5	Gore (.06)
NV (5)	Bush +7.0	Bush (3.5)
OH (20)	Bush +5.8	Bush (3.5)
OR (7)	Kerry +0.7	Gore (.05)
PA (21)	Kerry 1.7	Gore (4.2)
WA (11)	Kerry +9.3	Gore (5.9)
WI (10)	Bush +6.5	Gore (.2)
WV (5)	Bush +3.2	Bush (3.2)

Without these states the score stands: Bush (182) and Kerry (153).

The states highlighted in yellow are those that are really close in the polls right now.

Even if Kerry wins all of the states that Gore won last time (IA, MI, ME, MN, NJ, NM, OR, PA) the score will be 274 to 258.

Notice, how the only state that is a tight race and that Bush won last year is NH, While Kerry has tight races in (IA, MN, NM, OR and PA) just to defend Gore's wins there.

Furthermore, as many people have pointed out, if Gore does not pull out a win in OH or FL, his chances are slim.