Is this the best predictive model the left can muster?

Here are 2 examples on how the left just can't come up with the hard and fast supporting facts to show a Kerry victory.

First, the infamous Madame Clift writes in Newsweek that "the signs are pointing to a big turnout and a Kerry win." Most of the article is spent on dissing Matt Dowd and ranting on about the left's favorite topic: war. Or at least, their unrelenting Monday morning quarterbacking. In the end all Clift can point to is the undecideds traditionally breaking for the challenger. That's not very strong in my book, especially with the youth vote looking like a break even vote.

Second, there's this priceless piece on TNR, where Ryan Lizza basically gives the election to Kerry because Mike McCurry is nicer and less political than the Bush PR team. Says Lizza:

By erecting an iron wall around the White House, Bush is now paying a price. Conservatives think it's liberal bias that drives some of the tougher coverage Bush has seen this year, but I think it's schadenfreude.

So basically, Bush will lose the election because of press bias and the press likes Kerry more because the press basically has : "a malicious satisfaction in the misfortunes of others."